3. (10%) A random variable X has a Poisson distribution with λ > 0. Given X, a random variable Y is N(μ, X).

(a) (5%) What is the E(XY)?
(b) (5%) What is the \( \operatorname{Var}(\mathbf{Y}) \)? (HINT: \( \operatorname{Var}(\mathbf{Y}) = \operatorname{E}(\mathbf{Y}^2) - \operatorname{E}(\mathbf{Y})^2 \)

(Please show the process of calculation)

4. \( (10\%) \) \( X{1}, X{2}, \ldots, X{n} \) are the independent and identically distributed random variables and follow the distribution with mean \( \mu \) and variance \( \sigma^2 \). Let \( \bar{X} = \sum{i=0}^{n} X_i / n \). Please show that \( \bar{X} \) is a consistency estimator of \( \mu \).

5. (10%) A test of epidemic disease has the following results: to those patients who have been infected, the correct rate (showing positive) is \( 90\% \); however, to the healthy people, there still exists \( 1\% \) error rate (showing positive). Assume the prevalence rate is \( 0.1\% \) (that is, there are 10 persons really infected in 10000 sample). If a man's test reports positive, what is the probability he really infected?

6. (10%) A random variable \( X \) follows lognormal distribution, \( \log X \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2) \). Derive the probability density function of \( X \).

7. (15%) \( X_1, X_2, \dots, X_{64} \) follow identical Possion(1) distribution independently. Please calculate the probability \( P(X_1+X_2+\dots X_{64}>62) \). 【Hint: by Central Limit Theorem】

8. (15%) \( X \sim N(0,1) \) and \( Y \sim N(0,1) \), \( X \) and \( Y \) are independent. Please derive the probability density functions of \( W = X / Y \).

1. 簡答題：(每小題 4%，共 16%) (1) What is the main conceptual difference between GDP and GNP? How different are GDP and GNP for countries with many migrant workers from abroad? (4%)

(2) Suppose that there are 10 million people not in the labor force. How many people are UNEMPLOYED if the labor force participation rate is 95% and the unemployment rate is 2%? (4%)

(3) Please describe the main idea of the Ricardian equivalence proposition. (4%)

(4) 下圖為 IS-LM 圖形分析，其中縱軸為利率(i)而橫軸為產出(Y)，請問圖中(I, II, III, IV)哪一點表示商品市場與貨幣市場同時供不應求？為什麼？(4%)

2. 根據 Laffer 曲線的邏輯，所得稅稅率達 100%時，沒有勞動者願意提供勞動，稅基將被完全侵蝕。從供給面經濟學來看，試繪圖說明是否所得稅率一定要高達 100%，稅基才會等於零？(10%)

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